1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	332393	Bridge City Poker	Current	64	7.90	5.57	2.00
			Estimated	600	7.65	6.04	2.14

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Bridge City Poker, players compete to get rid of the cards in their hands (or "shed") by playing different sets of cards (or “melds”) over a series of tricks before the deck runs out. Players will have to manage their ever-growing hands with game-breaking power cards. At the end of a round, players will burn a bridge (or “suit”) of choice completely from their hands. Finally, all players will score points based on their remaining cards and, after a set number of rounds, lowest score wins. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/332393

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Bridge City Poker? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Bridge City Poker. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Bridge City Poker. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	332393	Bridge City Poker	1.00	5.57	7.90	2.14	64
1	1906	1260	Rook	0.82	6.01	6.41	1.87	2,715
2	2005	17204	Control Nut!	0.81	5.59	6.27	1.93	219
3	2017	234657	TRUT	0.81	5.53	6.61	1.67	51
4	1830	154394	Sheepshead	0.80	5.63	8.16	3.00	94
5	2017	223332	King's Life	0.79	5.52	6.17	2.00	41
6	1984	10906	Beggars and Thieves	0.77	5.52	6.16	1.50	62
7	2014	156373	Chimera	0.77	5.93	6.98	2.18	724
8	2013	127748	Alliances	0.77	5.46	4.53	2.20	68
9	2002	3405	Tin Soldiers	0.77	5.53	5.83	1.63	204
10	2008	20079	Pacific Typhoon	0.77	5.85	6.65	2.02	794
11	2016	197571	Pie Rats of the Carob Bean Farm	0.76	5.50	6.21		35
12	2019	280501	Three-Dragon Ante: Legendary Edition	0.74	5.71	7.14	2.00	283
13	2017	217298	Anansi and the Box of Stories	0.74	5.53	6.28	2.00	73
14	2019	260168	Volleyball High	0.74	5.58	7.20	2.40	94
15	2009	54307	Chronicle	0.74	6.16	6.81	1.96	1,828
16	2014	149639	Noble Treachery: The Last Alliance	0.73	5.58	6.75	2.14	162
17	1996	1938	XXL	0.73	5.46	4.49	1.20	67
18	2019	264154	Thrown	0.72	5.50	5.65	2.00	33
19	2017	216632	Tournament at Camelot	0.72	6.22	7.22	2.30	1,392
20	2020	292974	Tournament at Avalon	0.72	5.99	7.52	2.56	587
21	2018	250878	Rebel Nox	0.72	5.57	6.42	3.50	158
22	2020	303054	Yacht Rock	0.72	5.50	5.55	1.00	33
23	2017	224815	Deca Slayer	0.72	5.54	6.52	1.50	64
24	1810	6819	Skat	0.72	6.14	7.24	3.05	1,109
25	2017	200888	Med Sirocco	0.72	5.52	6.56	2.00	35

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Bridge City Poker while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	332393	Bridge City Poker	5.57	1.00	5.57	7.90	2.14	64
1	2019	284083	The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine	5.47	0.70	7.76	7.94	1.98	28,219
2	1991	215	Tichu	5.10	0.70	7.31	7.58	2.34	14,108
3	1906	1260	Rook	4.95	0.82	6.01	6.41	1.87	2,715
4	1984	1465	Wizard	4.58	0.69	6.68	6.94	1.73	9,552
5	2014	156373	Chimera	4.57	0.77	5.93	6.98	2.18	724
6	2009	54307	Chronicle	4.54	0.74	6.16	6.81	1.96	1,828
7	1925	2181	Bridge	4.52	0.68	6.68	7.46	3.86	2,964
8	2005	17204	Control Nut!	4.50	0.81	5.59	6.27	1.93	219
9	1830	154394	Sheepshead	4.50	0.80	5.63	8.16	3.00	94
10	2017	216632	Tournament at Camelot	4.50	0.72	6.22	7.22	2.30	1,392
11	2008	20079	Pacific Typhoon	4.48	0.77	5.85	6.65	2.02	794
12	2017	234657	TRUT	4.45	0.81	5.53	6.61	1.67	51
13	1848	6901	Euchre	4.43	0.71	6.23	6.82	1.70	2,394
14	2010	37628	Haggis	4.42	0.68	6.54	6.97	2.11	4,112
15	1810	6819	Skat	4.40	0.72	6.14	7.24	3.05	1,109
16	2017	223332	King's Life	4.36	0.79	5.52	6.17	2.00	41
17	1999	340	Frank's Zoo	4.36	0.70	6.23	6.61	1.53	3,510
18	2018	243430	Dealt!	4.35	0.71	6.17	7.09	1.41	1,253
19	1990	3085	Gang of Four	4.35	0.71	6.10	6.61	1.87	2,339
20	2020	292974	Tournament at Avalon	4.33	0.72	5.99	7.52	2.56	587
21	2003	8129	Sluff Off!	4.31	0.69	6.28	6.87	1.86	2,378
22	1984	10906	Beggars and Thieves	4.27	0.77	5.52	6.16	1.50	62
23	2019	280501	Three-Dragon Ante: Legendary Edition	4.25	0.74	5.71	7.14	2.00	283
24	2002	3405	Tin Soldiers	4.24	0.77	5.53	5.83	1.63	204
25	2013	127748	Alliances	4.18	0.77	5.46	4.53	2.20	68

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	332393	Bridge City Poker	Portland Game Collective	Lee Gianou	Shea Satterlee	Card Game	Card Games: Climbing	Follow
					Caleb Sohigian		Card Games: Draw and Discard	Hand Management
							Card Games: Matching	Ladder Climbing
							Card Games: Shedding / Stops	Melding and Splaying
							Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Move Through Deck
								Push Your Luck
								Team-Based Game
								Trick-taking
								Variable Set-up

Individual Game Analysis